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Analysis of Supply and demand of Agricultural Products in China in September 2023 (CASDE-No.87)

Release time: 2023-09-13

      玉米:This month estimated China's corn imports for 2022/23 at 18.5 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from the previous month。In August, the weather conditions in the northeast and North China producing areas were generally good, and the strong rainfall brought by the typhoon effectively increased the soil moisture content, which played a certain role in promoting the growth of corn。In the next period of time, it is expected that the first frost in most areas of Northeast China is late, and the heat condition is better, which is conducive to grouting maturity。According to the agricultural situation dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the 2023/24 corn planting area was increased by 400,000 hectares to 43.87 million hectares this month。Recently, the new season corn in some areas of North China and Liaoning has been gradually listed, and the sales willingness of grain holders has increased. The corn price in North China has declined but is still high, and the national average price has decreased。In anticipation of the weakening of high corn prices and the increase in feed consumption, this month raised the 2023/24 corn feed consumption by 2 million tons to 191 million tons。 

      大豆:This month estimated that China's soybean imports in 2022/23 exceeded previous expectations to reach 99.86 million tons, up 4.66 million tons from last month's estimate.Crush consumption was 96.85 million tons, up 2.08 million tons from last month's estimate。Global soybean supply and demand are generally loose this year,However, high temperature was encountered during the critical growth period of the new season,Crop yield decline and other factors,Global soybean prices remain relatively high,Add to that the renminbi's decline against the dollar,Increased cost of imported soybeans,It is expected that the average price range of imported soybeans after tax this year is 5200-5400 yuan per ton,An increase of $200 from last month's estimated range。 

      China's soybean production for 2023/24 will not be adjusted this month。The new season of domestic soybeans will mature and harvest one after another in September. Since July, there has been abundant rainfall in Northeast China, and the drought in the central and western parts of Heilongjiang Province has been effectively alleviated.In most domestic producing areas, the conditions of light and warm water are suitable, and the soybean is growing well。This month's forecast,2023/24年度,China imported 97.25 million tons of soybeans,An increase of 3.03 million tons from last month's forecast,The main reason is that the domestic livestock and poultry industry's demand for feeding protein raw materials will remain high;Crushing consumption of 97.78 million tons,2.78 million tons higher than last month's forecast,The main reason is that domestic pig breeding profits are expected to gradually improve,Support soybean meal demand。 

      棉花:At the end of the 2022/23 cotton market year, the average price of domestic 3128B cotton was 16,092 yuan per ton, and the average price of Cotlook A index was 99 cents per pound, both in the estimated range。This month, the 2023/24 cotton production, import and export, consumption, inventory forecast data are not adjusted。By the end of August, most of the cotton in the country was in the breaking boll batting period, and the growing period in some cotton areas in Xinjiang was 5-10 days later than in previous years。 

      Edible vegetable oil:Forecast this month, affected by the increase in soybean imports, 2023/24 edible vegetable oil production increased by 550,000 tons, to 30.25 million tons, edible vegetable oil imports, consumption to maintain last month's forecast value unchanged。Recently Henan, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and other major producing areas of the new season peanut harvest, the market is generally stable。It is expected that in September, the light and temperature in the main producing areas are good, and most of the precipitation is normal, which is conducive to the harvest and drying of peanuts。 

      食糖No adjustments are made to the 2023/24 forecast for domestic sugar production and consumption this month。At present, the overall growth of sugarcane in Guangxi is good. It is expected that the temperature in the later period will be close to the usual, and the rainfall will be higher. However, the occurrence of sugarcane smut and sugarcane borers is more obvious.Beet growth is generally good, and the new annual beet sugar production may start in mid-to-late September。International aspect,Brazil's sugar production and exports continue to grow,But it will be difficult to fill the gap caused by falling sugar production and exports in India and Thailand,The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar production and demand gap of 2.12 million tonnes in 2023/24,The relationship between supply and demand is tight,This month raised the lower end of the international sugar price forecast range by 2 cents per pound,The limit is raised by one cent per pound,Take into account the impact of international price transmission,The forecast range of domestic sugar prices will be raised by 450 yuan per ton。In the later stage, attention should be paid to the progress and logistics of sugarcane crushing in Brazil, weather conditions in the main sugar-producing countries in the Northern hemisphere and changes in sugar export policies。 

      Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs